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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if J.D. Vance is the next member of the United States Cabinet whose departure from their position is announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from J.D. Vance and the White House. The Cabinet consists of the Vice President and the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President's Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officeholders are not included. A departure will be considered to be announced when a cabinet member, the White House, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the cabinet member has ceased or will cease to hold their cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the cabinet member formally leaves the position. Announcements of the cabinet member's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). If a cabinet member holds their position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to a cabinet member's duties in their position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that a cabinet member is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that a cabinet member will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the relevant person may depart their specified position absent reporting on a qualifying announcement; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than a cabinet member, the White House, or their respective authorized representatives. If a cabinet member formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the Sources' confirmation of such departure will be treated as a qualifying announcement of that person's departure. If the departures of multiple cabinet members from their cabinet-level positions are announced concurrently, the Contract for each departing member settles to $1.00 divided by the number of listed members whose departures are concurrently announced (rounded down to the nearest tick), and all other Contracts settle to $0.00. Announcements will be considered to be issued concurrently only if they are issued in the same written statement (e.g., a public social media post), or in a single public speaking event (e.g., a press conference, a speech).
Resolves: 1/15/2028.