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Prediction market on metaculus. The [2026 Iran war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war) began on February 28, 2026 with joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran. After an initial phase and a ceasefire that Trump declared over in July 2026, fighting resumed, with a fresh escalation beginning around September 1, 2026. Through mid-September 2026, US and Israeli forces have repeatedly struck Iranian oil facilities, ports, airports, IRGC and militia targets inside Iran, while Iran has attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and fired missiles at US vessels and regional bases. The US military reported '11 straight nights of strikes' in early September, indicating a high operational tempo, though intensity has fluctuated and lulls have occurred. On September 17, 2026, President Trump told Axios he had 'a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?', and was reported to be weighing a return to large-scale strikes. Trump was also reported to be meeting Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly around September 22-23, 2026 to discuss the next phase of the war and a 'day-after' plan, which some reporting suggested would be finalized only after the November US midterm elections. As of mid-September, Iran had rejected negotiations until its demands were met, and Trump had called talks 'a waste of time.' Whether the US conducts a strike on Iranian soil on any given day depends on the day-to-day operational tempo and on whether the ongoing UNGA-adjacent diplomacy produces a pause, ceasefire, or escalation. The [List of attacks during the 2026 Iran war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_attacks_during_the_2026_Iran_war) Wikipedia page compiles individual strikes with dates and locations and is updated as events are reported. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"sdk_version": "0.6.0", "rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 3, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 10/3/2026.