Loading
Prediction market on metaculus. The term of UN Secretary-General António Guterres ends on 31 December 2026, and the UN Security Council is conducting its selection process for a successor. Under the process, the Council holds a series of informal "straw polls" in which members receive ballots and mark whether they "encourage," "discourage," or express "no opinion" on each announced candidate. These indicative votes narrow the field before the Council formally recommends a single candidate to the General Assembly. Later rounds are typically "colour-coded," using differently coloured ballots for the five permanent members and the ten elected members to reveal whether any candidate faces a likely veto. In the 2026 process, eight candidates are in the race. Three straw polls have been held so far: the first on 30 July 2026, the second on 21 August 2026, and the third on 18 September 2026. According to Security Council Report's "What's In Blue" analysis of the third poll, a fourth straw poll "could follow shortly after High-Level Week, which will conclude on 28 September," potentially indicating whether talks on the margins of the UN General Assembly's high-level week narrowed the field. For comparison, in the 2016 process (which selected Guterres), undifferentiated straw polls were held on 21 July, 5 and 29 August, and 9 and 26 September, with the first colour-coded straw poll on 5 October and a final recommendation announced 5–6 October. The pace and exact dates of straw polls are set informally by Council members (often at the monthly presidency breakfast) and are not fixed far in advance, so the precise timing of a fourth poll in 2026 is uncertain. The straw-poll log at 1for8billion.org and Security Council Report track each poll as it occurs. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"sdk_version": "0.6.0", "rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 10/3/2026.