Loading
Prediction market on metaculus. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season began June 1, 2026 and ends November 30, 2026. As of September 18, 2026, it has been an unusually quiet, below-normal season driven by a strong El Niño, with five named storms — Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard — and no hurricanes. A 1991–2020 normal season has produced roughly nine named storms by this point, so 2026 is running well behind. The next name on the World Meteorological Organization's 2026 list is Fay. Historically, the sixth named storm forms around August 29. NOAA's August 2026 outlook forecast 8–14 named storms for the full season. In mid-September 2026 the NHC was monitoring a disturbance southeast/east of Bermuda with roughly 40% odds of development over seven days. A storm is named once it attains sustained winds of at least 39 mph (34 knots) as a tropical or subtropical cyclone. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"sdk_version": "0.6.0", "rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`
Resolves: 10/3/2026.