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Prediction market on polymarket. This market will resolve to "Yes" if California has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 29, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No". California carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 29, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no California market and make no claim about California's drought. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Liquidity: $142.595. Resolves: 10/1/2026.