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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if any NATO member state formally initiates its withdrawal from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from NATO. A formal initiation of withdrawal refers to a NATO member state taking an official action to initiate its withdrawal from NATO under the governing framework of NATO (e.g., a submission of a notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty). Legal or political challenges, reversals, or other developments which occur after the formal initiation of withdrawal do not impact settlement. Where no official process for withdrawal exists or is relevant, withdrawal actions taken by a NATO member state may qualify if they are official and clearly directed at withdrawal from NATO. If NATO formally dissolves or otherwise ceases to exist, such dissolution will be considered a withdrawal.
Resolves: 1/15/2028.