Will a Sustainment-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Sustaining forces, by moving fuel, ammunition, spare parts, and casualties, is an increasingly automated part of [military logistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_logistics). The U.S. Army has begun [ordering autonomy-ready resupply trucks](https://www.armyrecognition.com/news/army-news/2025/us-army-orders-autonomous-oshkosh-pls-a2-trucks-to-secure-frontline-convoys) that use a "leader-follower" arrangement, in which one crewed vehicle leads several uncrewed trucks through dangerous routes, while [predictive-maintenance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Predictive_maintenance) and demand-forecasting tools anticipate failures and shortages before they occur. This automation handles individual tasks and offers recommendations, while human staffs plan the distribution network and set priorities across units. As of 2026, no system that autonomously directs and re-prioritises supply, maintenance, medical, and personnel flows across units to meet a sustainment objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2048.