Will a Protection-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Defending against fast-moving threats increasingly depends on automated battle management that allocates defensive resources faster than operators could by hand. The U.S. Army and Poland have [fielded](https://breakingdefense.com/2025/03/deploying-forward-how-the-armys-ibcs-unifies-missile-defense-across-domains/) the [Integrated Battle Command System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Battle_Command_System), which fuses data from many radars and assigns the best interceptor to each incoming [air or missile threat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense) across a shared network, and in cyber defence, automated detection-and-response tools counter intrusions at machine speed. These systems optimise engagements within human-set rules and defensive priorities, and within a single domain, rather than deciding the overall protection plan. As of 2026, no system that autonomously allocates and reallocates defensive resources across domains to meet a protection objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2040.