Will a Manoeuvre, fire, and effects domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Coordinating multiple combat platforms is increasingly automated. [Drone swarms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swarm_robotics) can coordinate internally to pursue a shared objective, dividing tasks among their members with little human oversight, and [manned-unmanned teaming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned-unmanned_teaming) lets a crewed aircraft direct accompanying uncrewed "collaborative combat aircraft": in a January 2026 U.S. Navy [demonstration](https://news.usni.org/2026/01/14/navy-tests-manned-unmanned-teaming-capabilities-for-collaborative-combat-aircraft-program), a virtual fighter acting as mission lead directed autonomous drones to defend assigned areas against simulated adversaries. In these systems autonomy stays within a single swarm or small team, while a human commands the formation and allocates units, targets, and timing. As of 2026, no system that autonomously directs multiple subordinate combat units, assigning their routes, targets, and timing, has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2044.