Will an Intelligence-domain AMO acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Intelligence collection is increasingly automated, both in how sensors are tasked and in how their output is processed. Through ["tip and cue"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tip_and_cue), reconnaissance satellites and other sensors automatically hand a target off between one another to maintain tracking, while AI models perform [automatic target recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automatic_target_recognition) on the resulting imagery and signals; fielded systems can now [task satellites and process their feeds with little human involvement](https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/air/dsei-2025-iceye-unveils-isr-processing-container-for-faster-satellite-intelligence). These systems automate collection and analysis within human-defined priorities, leaving the choice of what to collect, and the judgement of what it means, to analysts. As of 2026, no system that autonomously directs and retasks intelligence assets and revises its own assessments from an intelligence objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2036.