Will an Electromagnetic spectrum-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Operations in the [electromagnetic spectrum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_spectrum) range from [electronic warfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_warfare) to [directed-energy weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directed-energy_weapon), and much of this activity is already automated. Aircraft self-protection suites automatically detect threat emissions and trigger preprogrammed countermeasures, and the [jamming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_jamming_and_deception) and [spoofing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spoofing_attack) of navigation and communications signals has been widespread in recent conflicts. Conventional systems rely on libraries of known threats; "cognitive" electronic-warfare systems under development, such as those in DARPA's [Adaptive Radar Countermeasures](https://www.darpa.mil/research/programs/adaptive-radar-countermeasures) program, aim to characterise unfamiliar radar signals and synthesise jamming responses in real time without preprogramming. These remain confined to specific tasks rather than self-directed campaigns. As of 2026, no system capable of autonomously planning and executing an electromagnetic-spectrum operation from a high-level objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2034.