Will a Cyber-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Automation is pervasive in offensive cyber operations, and some tools act with little or no human direction once launched. The [Stuxnet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet) worm, uncovered in 2010, propagated on its own and sabotaged the [industrial control systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_control_system) running Iran's uranium-enrichment centrifuges, and [self-propagating malware](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_worm) such as NotPetya has spread across networks and destroyed data without operator control. More capable autonomy has been demonstrated in testing: in DARPA's 2025 [AI Cyber Challenge](https://www.darpa.mil/news/2025/aixcc-results), AI-driven systems autonomously found, proved, and patched software vulnerabilities across millions of lines of code without human aid. Such systems still execute pre-programmed logic or narrow tasks rather than pursuing open-ended objectives. As of 2026, no system capable of autonomously planning and executing a cyber campaign against an adversary from a high-level objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2034.