Will a Space-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Space is an increasingly contested military domain, and several states have demonstrated systems that act on or near orbital assets. Satellites conducting [rendezvous and proximity operations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rendezvous_and_proximity_operations) can approach, inspect, and physically manipulate other spacecraft: in 2022, China's [Shijian-21](https://spacenews.com/chinas-shijian-21-spacecraft-docked-with-and-towed-a-dead-satellite/) docked with a defunct navigation satellite and towed it to a graveyard orbit above the [geostationary belt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geostationary_orbit). Several states have also tested [anti-satellite weapons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-satellite_weapon) capable of destroying satellites, and the jamming of satellite signals is widespread. These activities are generally directed from the ground rather than conducted autonomously. As of 2026, no system capable of autonomously planning and executing an orbital mission from a high-level objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2050.