Will a Maritime-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Autonomous and automated systems are used in [naval warfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_warfare) across a range of capabilities. [Naval mines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_mine) such as the encapsulated-torpedo [Mark 60 CAPTOR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_60_CAPTOR) can autonomously detect a target's acoustic signature and launch a homing [torpedo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Torpedo), and [anti-ship missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ship_missile) guide themselves to their targets after launch. During the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), [uncrewed surface vessels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unmanned_surface_vehicle) such as the [Magura V5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magura_V5) [sank or damaged numerous Russian warships](https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2025/september/ukraines-magura-naval-drones-black-sea-equalizers) in the Black Sea, though these are typically remotely operated rather than autonomous. As of 2026, no system capable of autonomously planning and executing a maritime mission from a high-level objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2036.