Will a Land-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Autonomous and automated systems are used in [land warfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_warfare) across a range of capabilities. [Automated sentry guns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentry_gun) such as South Korea's [SGR-A1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SGR-A1), deployed along the [Korean Demilitarized Zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Demilitarized_Zone), can detect, track, and engage intruders with limited human oversight, and [fire-and-forget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire-and-forget) [anti-tank guided missiles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-tank_guided_missile) such as the [FGM-148 Javelin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin) guide themselves to a target after launch. During the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), armed and explosive-laden [unmanned ground vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unmanned_ground_vehicle) have been [fielded in large numbers](https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/how-ukraine-builds-its-ground-robots-for-the-kill-zone-18666) for logistics, mine warfare, and assault tasks, though these are typically remotely operated rather than autonomous. As of 2026, no system capable of autonomously planning and executing a land mission from a high-level objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2041.