Will an Air-domain AMC acting outside its mandate cause 100 deaths or $5bn in damage within 5 years of one first being fielded by a G-20 state?

Prediction market on metaculus. Autonomous and automated systems are used in [air warfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aerial_warfare) across a range of capabilities. [Close-in weapon systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Close-in_weapon_system) such as the [Phalanx CIWS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS) can engage incoming airborne threats in automatic modes, and [loitering munitions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loitering_munition) are able to home on radar emitters without per-target human authorisation. During the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), [FPV drones](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First-person_view_\(radio_control\)) with onboard [terminal-guidance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_guidance) modules [entered mass production in 2025](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/60152), locking onto and striking designated targets through [electronic jamming](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_jamming_and_deception). In testing, artificial-intelligence agents developed under the U.S. [Air Combat Evolution (ACE) program](https://www.darpa.mil/news/2024/ace-ai-aerospace) flew a modified [F-16](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Dynamics_F-16_Fighting_Falcon) (the [X-62 VISTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calspan_Variable_Stability_In-flight_Simulator_Test_Aircraft)) in live engagements against a human-piloted F-16 without human intervention. As of 2026, no system capable of autonomously planning and executing an air mission from a high-level objective has been operationally fielded.

Resolves: 12/31/2034.