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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will settle to Yes if the 2026 Montana US Senate election has a smaller margin of victory than the 2026 New Jersey US Senate election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities. The margin of victory for each election is the absolute difference in vote share percentages between the candidate that receives the most votes in the election and the candidate that receives the second-most votes in the election. A candidate's vote share percentage will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the candidate by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Where an election is tabulated by ranked-choice or instant-runoff voting, the margin of victory is measured in the final round of tabulation that determines the winner. Where an election includes a potential runoff or second round, the margin of victory is measured in the final round that determines the winner. This market considers only the 2026 US Senate elections in Montana and New Jersey scheduled as of Contract Issuance. If the two elections have identical margins of victory, Yes contract holders for each tied election receive $1.00 divided by the number of tied elections, rounded down to the nearest tick, per contract.
Resolves: 1/15/2027.