Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League due to financial-rule breaches before 2030?

Prediction market on metaculus. In September 2026, Manchester City were [reported](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/live/cwyj9gxvdy8t) to have been found guilty by an independent commission of the vast majority of the financial-rule charges brought against the club by the Premier League. The charges concern conduct across multiple seasons and include allegations relating to financial information, profitability and sustainability rules, remuneration and cooperation with the Premier League investigation. Manchester City have maintained their innocence and intend to appeal. The sanction has not yet been determined. Under Premier League rules, potential punishments include financial penalties, points deductions and, at the most severe end, expulsion from the league. Analysis following the verdict has therefore raised the possibility that Manchester City could ultimately be relegated or expelled if the findings survive appeal.

Resolves: 1/1/2030.