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Prediction market on polymarket. This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Astralis and Alliance in the Stake Ranked Episode 4 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 3 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 3 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis wins Map 3 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. Astralis's round total on Map 3 exceeds Alliance's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Alliance". Map 3 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 3 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 3 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before October 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 1, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Resolves: 10/1/2026.