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Prediction market on metaculus. On February 28, 2026 the US in coordination with Israel [launched](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48887) airstrikes on Iran, sparking a regional conflict resulting in the [closure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis) of the Strait of Hormuz, where normally 25% of the world's seaborne crude oil and 20% of its liquid natural gas transits. In April 2026 the US and Iran agreed to a [ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire) and then in June 2026 a 60-day memorandum of understanding, resulting in a partial reopening of the Strait. However, a low-level conflict continued through the summer, as the MOU broke down and the Strait remained closed. In September 2026, qualifying airstrikes have occurred three times: * September 1, 2026: The US launches new [airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2026_United_States_strikes_on_Iran) on rocket launch sites, air defense, and other targets in southern Iran. * September 5, 2026: The US [strikes](https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-strikes-3-iranian-oil-tankers-iran-targets-rcna596222) the oil tanker M/T Downy off the coast of Kharg Island (in Iranian territorial waters). * September 8, 2026: The US [strikes](https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2097461550151860237) M/T Derya off of Kharg Island. As of late September 2026, the US and Iran were [negotiating](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/iran-has-suggested-a-deal-to-reopen-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-7-days) the status of the Strait, amid [threats](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-address-united-nations-general-assembly-meetings-world-leaders-iran-ukraine/) to resume the conflict. There has been [speculation](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/4/iran-war-why-us-midterms-could-be-a-pivotal-moment) that the US might resume attacks on Iran following the November 3, 2026 midterm elections. However, in a recent interview, John Mearsheimer, author of *The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities* and theoretician of the [offensive realism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_realism) school of thought in understanding geopolitics, [said](https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/the-iran-war-and-the-looming-economic) the following when asked about the probability of new heavy strikes following the election: > Basically zero. If they could carry out strikes against Iran that would produce victory for us, why wouldn’t we do it now? Or why didn’t we do it before now? And the answer is we have no strategy for producing victory in Iran, other than hoping that their economy collapses, which leads to regime change, and then they make all the necessary concessions to us. But the idea that there’s some magical military option out there that they’re just waiting to use after the election is a hard argument to swallow. I would also note that one of the principal reasons that we have not used massive military force since April 8<sup>th</sup>- you want to remember that there was a 40-day air war at the start of this conflict and we ended it on April 8th, as I said, and we’ve not gone back to it since then. And one of the principal reasons is that we are very low in terms of our stocks of precious weaponry. In other words, we can’t afford to use weapons in our stockpile in another air offensive against Iran. And that’s why we haven’t done anything up to now, and that’s why I find it hard to believe that anybody is serious about doing anything after the midterm elections. > But let’s assume that I’m wrong and that we do go back on the offensive with the Israelis after the midterm elections. How are we going to produce a victory? What’s the magic strategy here? We tried this for 40 days, from February 28th to April 8th. It didn’t work. What do we have up our sleeve now that’s going to allow us to defeat the Iranians? I have no idea. And nobody who talks about going to war after the midterms has spelled out how we’re now all of a sudden going to produce victory. > The other point I would make, Chris, is that given the state of the American economy and the international economy, and what’s happening with regard to supplies of diesel and oil and the inflation that’s leading to, and given what’s happening in the bond market, I think there are going be powerful economic incentives, maybe even before the midterms, but certainly after the midterms, to put an end to this war. It looks like we’re heading towards a global recession. And if we’re not careful, we may end up in a global depression. This is a very dangerous situation from an economic point of view. So, it seems to me we have no military option, and the economic dangers are great. And therefore, the incentives for the United States to shut this one down sooner rather than later are actually quite great.
Resolves: 12/1/2026.