Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before December 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On February 28, 2026 the US in coordination with Israel [launched](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48887) airstrikes on Iran, sparking a serious regional conflict until a two-week [ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire) on April 8, 2026 (with additional low-level conflicts and blockades ongoing as of September 2026). Soon after the strikes began, Iran announced the [closure](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis) of the Strait of Hormuz, where normally 25% of the world's seaborne crude oil and 20% of its liquid natural gas transits. In June 2026 the US and Iran agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding, resulting in a partial reopening of the Strait. However, a low-level conflict continued through the summer, as the MOU broke down and the Strait remained closed. There have been repeated reports ([example](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/15/could-the-us-take-control-of-irans-southern-islands)) that one scenario being contemplated in Washington is for the US to occupy southern Iranian islands in order to enforce the free flow of oil and natural gas through the Strait. Another scenario [contemplated](https://www.wjcl.com/article/us-military-secret-mission-capture-iran-uranium-trump-paused-it-sources-iran-war-invade/71573017) has been a ground operation to send US troops into Iran to seize uranium. US president Donald Trump is [reported](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-rejects-iran-ceasefire-expects-renewed-bombing-after-midterms-5982ee50) to have told aides he planned to resume bombing Iran after the US midterms on November 3, 2026.  In early April 2026, a special forces [operation](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2026/04/08/the-rescue-mission-that-brought-2-f-15e-strike-eagle-crew-members-home/) involving hundreds of personnel were deployed into Iran to rescue a downed pilot, although the operation was reported to have lasted a number of hours rather than consecutive days.  John Mearsheimer, author of *The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities*, has [speculated](https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/will-trump-go-kamikaze) that a possible scenario could be seizing a small Iranian island, though due to small numbers of US troop numbers in the Middle East, it might be hard to hold the territory. In a September 2025 video [interview](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2q4succ04o) Mearsheimer discusses the challenges faced by the US in its military strategy with Iran.  Realist Stephen Walt, author of *The Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy*, in August 2026 [discussed](https://www.aljazeera.com/video/the-bottom-line/2026/8/23/trump-has-run-out-of-options-in-iran-war-stephen-walt) in an August 2026 interview his view that the strategic situation may be at a stalemate, due to Iran "caring more" about the outcome cancelling out the superiority of America's military strength, similar historically to conflicts such as Vietnam. Francis Fukuyama recently on Bloomberg said that air strikes alone would not be sufficient to bring about the US's objective of regime change in Iran, though he also expressed skepticism that the US would put boots on the ground.

Resolves: 12/1/2026.