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Prediction market on metaculus. The [Strait of Hormuz](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strait_of_Hormuz) is a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the ocean, via the Gulf of Oman. Due to the amount of oil production in the Persian Gulf, 25% of the world's seaborne oil trade, as well as 20% of the world's liquefied natural gas, passes through the strait.  On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States began [a sustained campaign of airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war) against Iran. The strikes began a regional war, with Iran retaliating against Israel and the United States, as well as their assets in countries throughout the region. Shortly after the war began, Iran declared that ships would not be allowed to transit the Strait, and on March 1, 2026, Iran attacked several oil tankers, which kicked off the [2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Strait_of_Hormuz_crisis).  Please find a spreadsheet with the data [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1T4hQ_Z3DOQ3OUZ_8V-HEsM7acqa-lZf4-2tl_sfWLyU/edit?gid=0#gid=0). Before the conflict, an average of 83 ships transited the Strait each day during the period of January 1, 2019 through February 28, 2026. Traffic did fluctuate, and the lowest recent 7-day moving average was 48 in December 2025, which for purposes of this question will be considered the minimum threshold for "normal" commercial traffic.  In April 2026 the US and Iran agreed to a [ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire) and then in June 2026 a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU), resulting in a partial reopening of the Strait. On June 24, 2026, following the signing of the MOU, traffic reached 51 ships. However, a low-level conflict continued through the summer, as the MOU broke down and the Strait remained closed. In the 7 days through September 20, 2026, an average of only 3 ships per day transited the waterway.
Resolves: 12/1/2026.