Loading
Prediction market on metaculus. In world history, nuclear weapons have been used two times: in the 1945 [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) near the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. The usage of nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/), and as a result, there is a theorized strong de facto [taboo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_taboo) on their usage. Russia has a nuclear [arsenal](https://www.icanw.org/nuclear_arsenals) of over 5,400 warheads. In a May 2024 [interview](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/05/01/mearsheimer_the_us_will_not_fight_a_nuclear_war_with_russia_for_ukraine.html), political scientist and [offensive realist ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offensive_realism)John Mearsheimer warned that Russia could use nuclear weapons on Ukraine if Ukraine started winning on the battlefield, since Russia might perceive a threat to its existence. By contrast,[ liberal internationalist ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_internationalism)Francis Fukuyama [argued](https://www.persuasion.community/p/ukraine-at-war) in 2023 that the experience on the battlefield, where the Ukrainians had made gains, showed the Russia might not resort to a nuclear response.
Resolves: 12/1/2026.