Will the number of ERM 2026 candidate homicides reported in Peru exceed two by October 15, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Peru holds its Regional and Municipal Elections (ERM 2026) on October 4, 2026, with a regional second round (SER 2026) scheduled for November 29, 2026 in races where no gubernatorial ticket reaches 30% of valid votes. The 2026 campaign has been marked by extortion- and organized-crime-driven violence against political actors. As of late September 2026, the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE) reported 83 cases of threats, extortion, and attacks against candidates across 21 regions, and the Ministerio Público's Observatorio de Criminalidad registered dozens of penally-relevant incidents including 36 direct threats and 10 presumed attempts on candidates' lives. The Observatorio de Criminalidad documented two homicides of candidates directly linked to the campaign: Susy Aponte Polo ("La China Polo"), a journalist and candidate for governor of Áncash, shot dead by a hired gunman (sicario) at a market in Caraz on September 19, 2026; and a candidate for district councillor in Apurímac killed with a bladed weapon amid a clash between supporters. Violence has been concentrated in Lima, La Libertad, Áncash, Junín, and Cajamarca. With the first-round vote on October 4 and an active second-round campaign running toward November 29, the question is whether the reported tally of candidate homicides will rise above the two documented as of late September. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"sdk_version": "0.5.5", "rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 3, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`

Resolves: 10/16/2026.