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Prediction market on polymarket_us. This market will resolve to "Yes" if rain is reported at San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) on October 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Rain is reported if the present-weather group of any observation for KSFO on that date contains a rain code. No minimum amount or duration is required; a single observation reporting rain is sufficient. Both routine (METAR) and special (SPECI) observations count. The present-weather group appears in the body of the observation, after the visibility and before the cloud groups and any RMK. A rain code is RA, alone or with an intensity qualifier (− light, + heavy), with the shower (SH), freezing (FZ), or thunderstorm (TS) descriptor, or reported in combination with another precipitation code. −RA, RA, +RA, SHRA, −SHRA, TSRA, FZRA and RASN all count; in RASN rain is falling mixed with snow and the observation counts. Precipitation beginning or ending remarks (e.g., RAB, RAE) and precipitation amounts in the remarks (RMK) do not count. This means that rain that starts and stops in between METAR hourly readings will not be considered qualifying rain if not included in the present-weather reading. Drizzle (DZ), snow (SN), snow grains (SG), ice pellets (PL), snow pellets or small hail (GS), hail (GR), ice crystals (IC), unknown precipitation (UP), mist (BR), fog (FG) and haze (HZ), and a thunderstorm reported without a precipitation code (TS) do not count. A rain code also does not count where it appears only with the vicinity qualifier (VC), as in VCSH, which reports showers near the station but not at it; only in the recent-weather group (RE), as in RERA, which reports rain since the previous observation rather than at the time of the observation; or only in a trend group (TEMPO, BECMG), which is a forecast rather than an observation. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local standard time falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that no observation for the observation date has been issued by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve using the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report for KSFO for the observation date, and will resolve to “Yes” if the WEATHER CONDITIONS section of that report lists RAIN, LIGHT RAIN, HEAVY RAIN, FREEZING RAIN or LT FREEZING RAIN. MIXED PRECIP counts only where one of those entries is also listed, and a precipitation amount or a trace (“T”) alone does not count. Where more than one Daily Climate Report is issued for the date, the last report issued by 12:00 PM EST on the following day governs, and a report stated to be valid as of a time earlier than the end of the day is not such a report. If neither source has published data for the observation date, resolution may be delayed by up to 7 days, and the first data published within that period governs; if no data is published by the end of that period, this market will resolve at last fair market prices. A correction is published as a new report with the same observation time as the original, marked COR, and replaces the report it corrects. The resolution source shows one report per observation time, so where a correction has been issued, the corrected report is the one that counts. Corrections to observations recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be the observations for KSFO published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=KSFO&format=raw&date=2026-10-16T08:00:00Z&hours=30
Resolves: 10/25/2026.