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Prediction market on metaculus. Since the start of [hostilities](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war) on February 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators have been publicly reported to have held four in-person rounds of negotiations:  April 11-12, 2026 at the Serena Hotel in Islamabad, Pakistan -- There were 21 hours of negotiations between JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner on the US side and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi on the Iranian side, with Pakistan serving as the mediator June 21–28, 2026 at the Bürgenstock Resort at Lake Lucerne, Switzerland -- There were two rounds of negotiations, with Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner on the US side and Ghalibaf and Araghchi on the Iranian side, with Pakistan and Qatar serving as mediators. July 1-2, 2026 in Doha, Qatar -- There were talks between Witkoff and Kushner on the US side and Kazem Gharibabadi on the Iranian side, with Qatar serving as mediator.  September 22, 2026 in New York, NY on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assemply -- There were talks between Witkoff and Kushner on the US side and Araghchi and Iran's UN delegation on the Iranian side. Reportedly the meeting was not face-to-face but instead had Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani shuttling between the teams.
Resolves: 1/1/2027.