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Prediction market on metaculus. On October 19, 2026, Elon Musk [posted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2112089556615123114?lang=en) on his X account > Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. >   > This will be the first of many. At the time of the announcement this would have meant SpaceX's CEO would be [donating about \$10.5 billion worth of shares to approximately 72 million children](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/19/elon-musk-spacex-shares-giveaway-kids.html) in the US. It would be [the largest philanthropic gift in history](https://x.com/altcap/status/2112153160517099843). Musk is [the wealthiest person alive](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) and has previously made statements promising huge donations that did not later materialize. No details have emerged as to how the gift would occur and what would be the exact eligibility criteria. A possible reason for the announcement is that the US Treasury promulgated new [rules on September 30, 2026,](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2026/09/30/2026-20026/trump-accounts) regarding tax deductions for donated stock, provided that recipients hold on to the stock for at least five years. The new rules could make [donating stock much more attractive than giving cash](https://fortune.com/2026/10/20/elon-musk-donate-shares-gwen-shotwell-anthropic-trump-accounts/) since donors can now deduct the full market value without paying capital gains tax on the asset’s growth.
Resolves: 1/1/2028.