Beyond Simple Whale Tracking
A basic whale tracker shows you every large transaction. The Whale Finder goes further by addressing the three questions that determine whether whale activity is actually useful: Who is this whale? Are they skilled? And are they acting alone or as part of a convergent signal?
Classification
Wallets are classified by type: exchange wallets (operational, not directional), arbitrage wallets (paired positions, not directional bets), market maker wallets (liquidity provision, neutral positioning), and directional traders (genuine probability-based bets). Only the directional traders provide signal about the likely outcome of a prediction market contract.
Track Record Filtering
Within directional traders, performance filtering by hit rate, number of resolved positions, and profit consistency separates skilled traders from lucky ones. A wallet with a 62% hit rate across 200+ resolved positions has demonstrated skill that is statistically unlikely to be luck. A wallet with 5 trades and 100% hit rate could be either.
Cluster Detection
When multiple independently classified, performance-verified whales take the same side of a contract within a short time window, the convergence signal is far stronger than any individual trade. The Whale Finder detects these clusters and alerts you to the convergence, along with the aggregate track record and position size of the participating whales.
Practical Output
The result is intelligence, not just data. Instead of "large wallet bought 50,000 YES contracts," you get "3 independently verified directional whales (combined accuracy: 61%, combined new position: $800K) have built YES positions on Contract X over the past 48 hours. Their average entry price is 42 cents. The current market price is 45 cents." This context transforms whale data into an actionable input for your own probability assessment.
Explore these tools on Blockcircle: Prediction Markets Mispricing Engine | Whale Finder