Will the UK increase the qualifying period for settlement to 10 years before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Immigrants to the UK can currently apply for permanent residency – or "indefinite leave to remain" – after living in the country [for 5 years under most visa categories](https://www.gov.uk/indefinite-leave-to-remain#:~:text=You%20must%20usually%20have%20lived%20and%20worked%20in%20the%20UK%20for%205%20years). Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, has proposed a change to the requirements to apply for this status; the core changes proposed include increasing [the baseline requirement to 10 years](https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/earned-settlement/a-fairer-pathway-to-settlement-statement-and-accompanying-consultation-on-earned-settlement-accessible#:~:text=a\)%20increasing%20the%20baseline%20qualifying%20period%20for%20settlement%20to%2010%20years) while also introducing modifying factors which may increase or reduce this period. This change is driven by [forecasts of record high applications](https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/earned-settlement/a-fairer-pathway-to-settlement-statement-and-accompanying-consultation-on-earned-settlement-accessible#future-settlement-forecast) for residency over the next five years and a backdrop of [21% of British people polled](https://news.gallup.com/poll/701990/leads-world-concern-migration.aspx) considering immigration to be Britain's "biggest national problem". In November 2025, Mahmood indicated that the changes would come into effect [in April 2026.](https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2025-11-20/debates/E3CE324D-7597-40C5-8697-DB48AA843CFC/MigrationSettlementPathway#contribution-44475956-0A57-466A-A4EA-7A7FD64AAD83)

Resolves: 5/1/2026.