Will Iran's Internet not be "heavily filtered/whitelisted" for most users before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned.  Since then [the US President threatened the Iranian government and supported the protesters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d), [the protests escalated and became nationwide](https://apnews.com/video/what-to-know-about-the-protests-in-iran-30bed7d6f14f4865b583c9293df83df2), and [the Iranian theocracy brutally responded to the protesters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-war-economy-54e4024a0b9e6a9f3ab49153c8e28f05). On January 8, 2026, as tensions rose Iran’s Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (who has been in exile for almost 50 years) called for demonstrations. [The Iranian theocracy responded that day by shutting down the Internet and phone communications](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-war-nuclear-economy-ebddd998fbe7903e70ca62127250ebcb) for the country's population of over 90 million.  As [Amnesty International outlines](https://www.amnesty.org.au/everything-you-need-to-know-about-internet-shutdowns/), > Internet shutdowns pose a threat to human rights because they restrict the ability of important human rights activities to be organised and conducted... but are also in direct violation of a number of human rights laws. The United Nations Human Rights Committee has declared that “states … must not block or hinder internet connectivity in relation to peaceful assemblies.” On 15 January, 2026, [reports suggested that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5gegrdq3go). [Iran has a long history of Internet censorship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Iran). On January 27, 2026, [NetBlocks reported](https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/115967507497404228) "With #Iran's internet shutdown approaching day 20, many networks are becoming visible internationally. HOWEVER: No return to usual: Web still heavily filtered on a whitelist basis. Circumvention still needed: The opening of protocols can enable new workarounds." This remains the situation as of [NetBlocks update three days later](https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/115985042778046760).  The recent events have become ["the bloodiest crackdown on dissent since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution"](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-nationwide-scale-us-trump-0eecd9962240600150530261dfab03f2) with at least 3,117 people killed (although [other estimates are far higher](https://thebulletin.org/2026/01/irans-internet-shutdown-tells-a-larger-story-digital-repression-is-on-the-rise/)). [The economic damage has also been significant](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-crackdown-internet-business-costs-a0bd2df1d13355dcc28f46e5b5b3c893), further exacerbating tensions.

Resolves: 5/3/2026.