Will the North Atlantic sea surface temperature reach a daily record high before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. In recent years, the daily mean sea surface temperature has dramatically increased far above the rate of climate change, part of this is [due to lower sulfur oxide emissions by sea traffic](https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/24/13681/2024/), due to new regulations that took effect during 2020. In 2023 and 2024 the sea surface temperatures were well beyond what they had been even since 2020, in part due to lowered SO2 emissions, and [in part due to El Niño](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/14/nx-s1-5051849/hot-oceans-climate-science). North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures have started out high in 2026, but have so far been lower than during 2025.

Resolves: 5/1/2026.