Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament. Specifically, the announcement states that: > “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.” The same announcement also describes Nathan as follows: > Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.

Resolves: 5/2/2026.