Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers. In the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to "run" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating "we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so."

Resolves: 4/30/2026.