Will the US and Iran agree to a ceasefire before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Tensions between Iran and the US have sharply increased after the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, as Israel has [systematically weakened](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_proxy_conflict) Iranian-backed groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Israel and Iran exchanged direct strikes in 2024 before fighting [a brief war in June 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War), which also included US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. In December 2025, [protests erupted](https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2026/01/iran-deaths-injuries-authorities-protest-bloodshed/) across Iran after soaring inflation and worsening living conditions amid a collapse of the Iranian rial. Iranian authorities responded with a severe crackdown, with estimates of the death toll ranging from around 3,000 by the Iranian government to over 32,000 cited by Donald Trump. In early 2026, during [nuclear negotiations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iran%E2%80%93United_States_negotiations) mediated by Oman, the Trump administration accused Iran of restarting its nuclear weapons program, claims disputed by both European and American intelligence officials. On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel [launched coordinated strikes against Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_conflict), targeting key officials, military commanders, nuclear and military facilities, as well as civilian locations. With the stated aim of regime change, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [was killed](https://www.npr.org/2026/02/28/nx-s1-5730158/israel-iran-strikes-trump-us) in the strikes. Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against Israel and Gulf countries hosting U.S. military bases, including the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia with civilian infrastructure also struck. Trump indicated he was open to discussion and that Iran's new leadership [had expressed interest](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/white-house-official-irans-new-potential-leadership-suggests-its-open-to-talks-and-trump-says-hes-eventually-willing) in resuming negotiations, saying "they want to talk, and I have agreed to talk."

Resolves: 5/2/2026.