[ACX 2026] Will an AI model reach a 3 hour time horizon with 80% reliability during 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41140) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026, METR estimates that an AI model has a time horizon of ≥3 hours at 80% reliability, i.e. the AI has an estimated ≥80% reliability on tasks requiring human experts ≥3 hours to solve.

Liquidity: $5,100. Resolves: 12/31/2026.