Will pro-independence parties win a majority of seats at the 2026 Welsh election?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market will resolve YES if parties in favour of Wales becoming an independent state win a majority of seats in the Senedd at the next Welsh legislative election, due to be held on 7 May 2026. This market will otherwise resolve NO. Clarifications I will not trade in this market.

Liquidity: $1,000. Resolves: 5/7/2026.