Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Relations between the United States and Iran have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [Iran hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis), which led to the severing of diplomatic relations. Tensions have persisted for decades over Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. sanctions, regional influence, and Iran’s support for armed non-state groups across the Middle East. As of early March 2026, recent weeks have seen tensions escalate significantly following a series of U.S. military strikes against Iranian targets and related facilities. These actions have been framed by U.S. officials as responses to Iranian activities and attacks by Iran-aligned groups in the region. Iran has condemned the strikes and threatened retaliation, raising concerns among analysts and policymakers about the possibility of broader military escalation between the two countries. Media coverage of these developments can be found in outlets such as [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/) and [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/cjnwl8q4ggwt). Recent developments have increased discussion among analysts about the risks of escalation between the United States and Iran, including the potential for broader military operations beyond air and naval strikes. Reports on the current military situation and escalation risks are regularly published by research organizations such as the [International Crisis Group](https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran) and the [Center for Strategic and International Studies](https://www.csis.org/regions/middle-east). Potential escalation also threatens one of Donald Trump's major electoral promises, to stop starting "forever wars" and sending U.S. troops into conflicts abroad. 

Resolves: 5/1/2026.