Will 12 or more oil tankers transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day before May 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Reuters March 22, 2026:[ Iran says Strait of Hormuz open to all but ‘enemy-linked’ ships amid US threat](https://www.aol.com/articles/iran-says-strait-hormuz-open-075709390.html?guccounter=1\&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8\&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALZVbxcml-_07q8QIBz18wha-0h9Ro4eKZ0LjIAv1xqvaFTwuNKHTLOBldFLOVd3jYesW2rhgNNgZZAOkMH0JAvixU4TeXZfU9OONvhzbYQpQliF7XPdQuk8HblCcQhn1gxE2qwJjLdZHGPJjOQ2U-wbYPSBfJg3MkLYMK6J-_05) > Ali Mousavi said Tehran was ready to cooperate with the International Maritime Organization to improve maritime safety and protect seafarers in the Gulf, adding that ships not linked to “Iran’s enemies” could pass the strait by coordinating security and safety arrangements with Tehran. > “Diplomacy remains Iran’s priority. However, a complete cessation of aggression as well as mutual trust and confidence are more important,” Mousavi said, adding that Israeli and US attacks against Iran were at the “root of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz.” Lloyd's List March 11, 2026: [Naval escorts would cap tanker transits at under 10% of normal volumes](https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156589/Naval-escorts-would-cap-tanker-transits-at-under-10-of-normal-volumes) > NAVAL escorts for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz would effectively cap the flow of tanker movements at just under 10% of normal volumes. > That figure could be significantly lower depending on Iran’s response and availability of naval assets. It would also be heavily contingent on any potential minesweeping operations should Iran deliver on previous threats to mine the strait. > While the US has repeatedly refused requests from the shipping industry to provide naval escorts since the Iranian conflict began on February 28, both US and European Union naval operations are being assessed. > Neither the US nor EU plans are yet at the stage of committing to a deployment of assets, however, a basic naval escort operation would need between eight to 10 destroyers to protect convoys of between five to 10 commercial vessels in each transit. The 90-day average before the start of hostilities on February 28, 2026 was 43 per day. Since then, the numbers have been as follows: | Date | Tankers | 7-Day Moving Avg | | ---------- | ------- | ---------------- | | 2026-02-27 | 53 | 58.1 | | 2026-02-28 | 44 | 56.7 | | 2026-03-01 | 7 | 47.4 | | 2026-03-02 | 2 | 38.9 | | 2026-03-03 | 2 | 31.3 | | 2026-03-04 | 0 | 23.0 | | 2026-03-05 | 1 | 15.6 | | 2026-03-06 | 0 | 8.0 | | 2026-03-07 | 2 | 2.0 | | 2026-03-08 | 1 | 1.1 | | 2026-03-09 | 6 | 1.7 | | 2026-03-10 | 1 | 1.6 | | 2026-03-11 | 1 | 1.7 | | 2026-03-12 | 3 | 2.0 | | 2026-03-13 | 3 | 2.4 | | 2026-03-14 | 1 | 2.3 | | 2026-03-15 | 5 | 2.9 | A spreadsheet with a much larger dataset can be accessed [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XGHoFjMLC3jYPVzqHF1aQ0NPL0BNzmsDGmKMf5vX0U4/edit?gid=0#gid=0). 

Resolves: 5/1/2026.