Will global tensions push New York yellow globes over $10 per sack in April 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. Vegetable prices have shown substantial short-term volatility in early 2026. The USDA Economic Research Service [reported](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings) that farm-level vegetable prices increased 48.2% from January to February 2026 after decreasing 12.6% from December 2025 to January 2026. At the retail level, USDA AMS's weekly specialty-crops report likewise showed notable recent movement in bagged potatoes, with yellow potatoes up 15% and Russet potatoes up 11%, while sweet potatoes sold per pound were down 22% in the same week.  Current geopolitical tensions are adding fuel to this fire. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical artery for the global fertilizer trade, has pushed costs to new heights, raising the pressure on root vegetable prices through farm input costs.

Resolves: 5/1/2026.