Will the United States Department of Justice indict the Federal Reserve before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. US President Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve have [been at odds](https://apnews.com/article/powell-trump-federal-reserve-0d1ca1d1850328cee0ddc28e6bc9394d) since the summer of 2025, with Trump pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates and repeatedly musing about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In response, Powell has consistently vowed to remain in office. On Sunday, January 11, 2026, the United States Department of Justice (DOJ) served the Federal Reserve with subpoenas and threatened it with a [criminal indictment](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-trump-subpoena-bf4fc6c690fa248fbc531bc9bc7f1758). > The subpoenas relate to Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee in June, the Fed chair said, regarding the Fed’s \$2.5 billion renovation of two office buildings, a project that [Trump has criticized as excessive](https://apnews.com/article/trump-powell-federal-reserve-building-renovation-2393d9ac9fdb9508f285d0faa5f4de41). On Friday, March 13, 2026, Judge James Boasberg [quashed the subpoenas](https://apnews.com/article/feeral-reserve-trump-0fdd36447a6aa8ae3e7125930d03950f). This has also delayed US Senate consideration of Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s choice to replace Powell when his term ends on May 15, 2026, because Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh's nomination until the investigation of the Fed is dropped.

Resolves: 5/1/2026.