Will any single oil spill larger than 50,000 barrels occur in the Persian Gulf before May 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. This question tracks whether the conflict produces a major marine environmental disaster in a critical energy corridor. `{"format":"bot_tournament_question","info":{"hash_id":"391b5b0b8519f36d","sheet_id":505.1}}`

Resolves: 5/1/2026.