Will another U.S. cabinet member leave office before May 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. The [United States cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) is made up of the Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as a number of designated cabinet-level officials. As of April 2026, there are 7 additional cabinet-level officials, with various other positions being included in the past. During the first Trump administration, 14 cabinet officials [left office](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump), substantially higher than Biden who saw only 2 departures, and Obama who oversaw 8 across two terms. The second Trump administration has seen 2 cabinet members leave office, with Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem [being removed](https://apnews.com/article/trump-homeland-security-noem-mullin-38c583b3cef97b4ef60d84b8f8b5961a) during March 2026 and Attorney General Pam Bondi [being fired](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/trump-fires-bondi-attorney-general.html) on April 2, 2026. Following the rapid removal of two cabinet officials in less than a month, media speculation has surged regarding other possible exits, [particularly](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/apr/02/trump-tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-chief) Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard.

Resolves: 5/1/2026.