Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution Criteria Resolves YES if the United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire agreement (not just a temporary pause in hostilities) by April 30, 2026. The agreement must be confirmed by official statements from both governments. Context: As of March 26, 2026 (Day 26 of the war), Iran rejected the US 15-point ceasefire plan, calling it "maximalist and unreasonable." Iran issued 5 counterdemands including reparations and Hormuz sovereignty. The 82nd Airborne is deploying to the Gulf region. Resolves NO if no formal ceasefire agreement is reached by the close date. Informal truces, partial ceasefires, or unilateral pauses do not count.

24h Volume: $2,450.425. Liquidity: $200. Resolves: 4/30/2026.