Will the current US x Iran ceasefire hold?

Prediction market on manifold. Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if there is no direct military engagement or significant escalation between the United States and Iran that results in casualties or sustained military action through the current ceasefire 2 week period. It resolves to NO if a significant direct military conflict or escalatory engagement occurs between the two nations prior to that date. For this purpose, "significant military engagement" is defined as any act of war or direct kinetic military strike initiated by either nation against the other, including strikes on official military installations or personnel, that is widely reported by credible international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC). If the status is ambiguous, the creator will resolve the market based on a consensus of reports from major international news organizations. Update 2026-04-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The US seizing an Iranian-flagged ship near the Strait of Hormuz does not count as a significant military engagement for resolution purposes.

24h Volume: $314.916. Liquidity: $100. Resolves: 5/8/2026.