Will the UAE engage with 2 or more additional Iranian projectiles (drones or missiles) before May 1, 2026?

Prediction market on metaculus. From the February 28th start of the 2026 conflict between Israel/the United States and Iran, Iran targeted the United Arab Emirates, which [hosts](https://www.middleeasteye.net/explainers/what-military-assets-does-us-have-middle-east) 3,500 US troops, a US airbase, as well as other US and Israeli assets:   With the April 8th [ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire), Iran stopped targeting the UAE. According to the UAE's[ Ministry of Defence](https://x.com/modgovae/status/2042196918672191644):  > Ministry of Defence confirms UAE airspace free of any air threats during past hours >   > The Ministry of Defence announced that on 9th April 2026, UAE air defence systems did not detect any ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, or UAVs launched from Iran.  >   > Since the onset of the blatant Iranian attacks, UAE air defences have engaged a total of 537 ballistic missiles, 26 cruise missiles, and 2,256 UAVs. A spreadsheet of daily projectiles reported by the UAE MOD can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10KkHmhhoCqQvEndFSiglUnzv39slafcPYTLTO10bIxE/edit?gid=0#gid=0). 

Resolves: 5/1/2026.