Will Mamata Banerjee win the Bhabanipur constituency in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Prediction market on metaculus. Mamata Banerjee, the incumbent Chief Minister of West Bengal and chairperson of the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC/TMC), is contesting the Bhabanipur (Assembly Constituency No. 159) seat in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election. Her main opponent is Suvendu Adhikari of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the current Leader of the Opposition in the West Bengal Assembly and the BJP's de facto chief ministerial face. Adhikari notably defeated Banerjee by 1,956 votes in Nandigram in the 2021 election; Banerjee subsequently won a Bhabanipur by-election in 2021 by a margin of 58,835 votes. Bhabanipur has been Banerjee's stronghold since 2011 (won in 2011, retained in 2016 by ~25,300 votes, and won the 2021 by-election by ~58,835 votes). The 2026 election was held in two phases on 23 April 2026 and 29 April 2026. Bhabanipur recorded approximately 86.5% turnout, well above the 2021 figures. Counting of votes is scheduled for 4 May 2026, with results published on the Election Commission of India's official results portal (https://results.eci.gov.in/). The BJP made Bhabanipur a flagship seat by fielding Adhikari directly against Banerjee, framing the contest as the 'mother of all electoral battles.' As of the question creation date (2 May 2026), votes have been cast but not yet counted. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 3, "ambiguity": 3, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`

Resolves: 5/11/2026.