Will the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) win an outright majority of seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?

Prediction market on metaculus. The 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election determines all 294 members of the Vidhan Sabha. Polling was held in two phases on April 23 and April 29, 2026, and counting is scheduled for May 4, 2026. A simple majority requires 148 seats. Re-polling has been ordered in one constituency (Falta, AC 144) on May 21, 2026 — its result will be declared May 24, so on May 4 results for 293 of 294 seats will be declared. The All India Trinamool Congress (AITC/TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, is the incumbent party and won 215 seats (out of 292 polled) in 2021. Its principal challenger is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won 77 seats in 2021. Exit polls released after the second phase show a divided picture: several agencies (Today's Chanakya, Matrize, P-Marq, Poll Diary) project the BJP as the largest party, with some giving BJP a clear majority and TMC in the 100-140 range. Outlier polls (People's Pulse, Janmat) project TMC well above 150. Aggregator "poll of polls" estimates put both parties near the majority mark, with a slight BJP edge inside the margin of error. Mamata Banerjee has publicly claimed TMC will exceed 220 seats. The Election Commission of India will publish official seat counts on its results portal at https://results.eci.gov.in/ from 8:00 AM IST on May 4, 2026. `{"format": "llm_question", "info": {"rating": {"quality": 4, "ambiguity": 4, "resolvability": 4, "passes": true}}}`

Resolves: 5/11/2026.