Will the community prediction be higher than 35.00% on 2026-05-15 for the Metaculus question "Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027?"?

Prediction market on metaculus. Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38768 - Original question title: Will the United States conduct a ground invasion of Iran before 2027? - The current community prediction as of 2026-05-02: 35.00% - Historical community prediction (weekly snapshots): - 2026-03-28: 80.00% - 2026-04-04: 83.00% - 2026-04-11: 48.00% - 2026-04-18: 48.00% - 2026-04-25: 40.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, at least 100 United States ground troops are located within the internationally recognized borders of Iran for more than 5 consecutive days. Original fine print: > “Ground troops” refers to uniformed personnel of the U.S. military engaged in active ground operations without authorization from the Iranian national government. > > For purposes of this question, Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb are not within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Original background: > Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have been adversarial since the [1979 Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and the subsequent [hostage crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_hostage_crisis) at the U.S. embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic ties were severed in 1980 and have not been restored. Over the following decades, the two states have engaged in indirect confrontation through sanctions, covert operations, and proxy conflicts. Central to ongoing tensions has been [Iran’s nuclear program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran), which the U.S. and its allies have sought to limit due to concerns over potential weaponization. The United States designates Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, while Iran views U.S. military presence in the region as a threat to its sovereignty and security. Repeated attempts at diplomatic engagement, including the 2015 [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA), have yielded only temporary de-escalations and remain a source of contention. > > Since 2023, tensions between the United States and Iran have [escalated steadily](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Eastern_crisis_\(2023%E2%80%93present\)). The U.S. has increased military deployments across the Middle East, including naval forces in the Strait of Hormuz and troop rotations in neighboring countries. Iran has responded with heightened ballistic missile tests, drone attacks on U.S. assets in Iraq and Syria, and naval harassment of commercial shipping.  > > In April 2025, the U.S. and Iran [held talks on a new agreement](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/19/iran-us-nuclear-negotiations-00299713) to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The negotiations, mediated by Oman, continued through May, with discussions focusing on uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. However, these talks faced significant challenges, particularly over the U.S. demand for zero enrichment, which Iran considers unacceptable. Despite some progress, the talks ultimately collapsed in June following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In response, [Iran suspended the negotiations indefinitely.](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/14/iran-says-nuclear-talks-with-us-meaningless-as-trump-pushes-for-a-deal) > > In June 2025, the U.S. launched [coordinated airstrikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on multiple Iranian nuclear facilities, marking a significant escalation. Iran retaliated with [missile strikes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Al_Udeid_Air_Base) targeting U.S. bases in the region. These actions have intensified fears of broader military confrontation, while diplomatic efforts remain stalled.  `{"format": "metaculus_binary_cp_rises", "info": {"post_id": 38768, "question_id": 38065, "last_cp": 0.35}}`

Resolves: 5/15/2026.