Will the community prediction be higher than 63.00% on 2026-05-14 for the Metaculus question "Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?"?

Prediction market on metaculus. Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40967 - Original question title: Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026? - The current community prediction as of 2026-05-02: 63.00% - Historical community prediction (weekly snapshots): - 2026-03-28: 60.00% - 2026-04-04: 60.70% - 2026-04-11: 60.00% - 2026-04-18: 60.00% - 2026-04-25: 65.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Original fine print: > No fine print provided Original background: > [Keir Starmer]() is the Prime Minister of United Kingdom and leader of the Labour Party. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Starmer has faced immense backlash and unpopularity from across British politics, with mass public dissatisfaction on nearly every issue. As of December 2025, Starmer faces an immense -50 [approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), with some polls reaching as low as -60. > > Facing pressure from both the right wing Reform UK and the left wing Green Party, Labour's polling numbers have steadily declined from the already historically low 33.7% election victory, [to an average of 20%](https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi), with some polls placing the party as low as 14%. > > Due to Starmer's immense unpopularity, speculation has emerged of a leadership challenge, with contenders such as [Andy Burnham](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgq4zd0lx12t) and [Wes Streeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v124znrgmo) emerging as contenders. Media has since repeatedly speculated on Starmer's prospects as leader, focusing on the possibility for him to be ousted following a potentially disastrous performance in the [2026 Local Elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections). `{"format": "metaculus_binary_cp_rises", "info": {"post_id": 40967, "question_id": 40675, "last_cp": 0.63}}`

Resolves: 5/14/2026.