Will the community prediction be higher than 21.00% on 2026-05-13 for the Metaculus question "Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?"?

Prediction market on metaculus. Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. -------------------------------- Below are some details about the original Metaculus question: - Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173 - Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027? - The current community prediction as of 2026-05-02: 21.00% - Historical community prediction (weekly snapshots): - 2026-03-28: 28.40% - 2026-04-04: 28.00% - 2026-04-11: 23.00% - 2026-04-18: 23.00% - 2026-04-25: 23.00% Original resolution criteria: > This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services. Original fine print: > For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis. Original background: > On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services. > > Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms. > > Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits. > > Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws. `{"format": "metaculus_binary_cp_rises", "info": {"post_id": 41173, "question_id": 40901, "last_cp": 0.21}}`

Resolves: 5/13/2026.